'If Not Modi, Then Who?'

This is a question that many in India are asking themselves today with the upcoming elections... but it seems that... no one...

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be held in 7 phases (like 5 years earlier). Phase 1st will take place on April 19, the second on April 26, the third on May 7, the fourth on May 13, the fifth on May 20, the sixth on May 25, and the seventh on June 1. The results will be announced on June 4. These elections will decide whether Narendra Modi and his BJP will win a third consecutive term.

So far, only the Indian National Congress has won more than two elections in a row, ruling India in 1951 from independence in 1947 until 1977 (winning five elections in a row: 1951/52, 1957, 1962, 1967, 1971). From that point on, no other party (including the INC itself) won more than two elections in a row.

However, the BJP did not set itself the goal of winning for the third time (i.e. exceeding 272 seats) but of a much more ambitious slogan: "Abki Baar, 400 Paar" (This time, above 400). Virtually everyone, including the openly pro-Modi media, knows that this is downright unattainable for the BJP, not only for the BJP itself but also for the entire NDA coalition. In 2019, the NDA won a total of 341 seats (of which the BJP alone won as many as 303). Only once in India's history has a single party managed to break the 400-seat mark - it was the Indian National Congress in 1984 under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi. This was done out of great compassion, as his mother Indira was killed a month before the elections. It is worth adding that 5 years later, after Rajiv's hopeless rule, the Congress lost power, winning only 194 seats.

This time, Modi is struggling with many problems to stay in power. Firstly, there is (typical of systems based on bourgeois liberal democracy) a certain fatigue of the electorate after 10 years of NDA rule - anti-incumbency. Another issue is the huge (especially among young people) unemployment in India. Poverty and inequality are also growing. The fate of farmers in particular (who this year once again protested in India against the government's neoliberal plans) is desperate. In addition, on February 15, the Supreme Court declared electoral bonds (introduced in 2017 by the NDA government) unconstitutional and ordered the disclosure of data that clearly shows that 80% of the money from these bonds comes from capitalists (including, for example, Pakistani ones, and as we know, Pakistan is in enemy No. 1 in the eyes of Indian nationalists) went to the BJP. Parakala Prabhakar (privately the husband of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman) said that the "electoral bonds scam is not only the biggest scam in India but in the entire world." And the result is that information about it reaches more and more Hindus. Additionally, it is worth adding that as a result of various controversies, several Lok Sabha candidates fielded by the BJP had to resign.

The BJP is trying to counteract these problems. As for anti-incumbency, the party named about 100 candidates for MPs (or approximately ¼ of all candidates). Moreover, the party stops making an effort to present any program assumptions. The BJP campaign today is completely focused on Modi. No one in the saffron party hides the fact that a vote for the lotus symbol is not a vote for a candidate, a program, etc. - it is a vote for Modi. Sam Rajnath Singh, defence minister and one of the most important people in the party who, as the leader of the BJP in 2013, proposed and promoted Modi as the prime ministerial candidate, said: "People are casting their votes only in Modi's name."

The BJP is also not particularly committed to any economic plan. Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) and Viksit Bharat 2047 (a program aimed at making India a highly developed country before the 100th anniversary of independence) remain slogans without a clear program or proposal.

When it comes to electoral bonds, the BJP is completely losing this image battle. It downplays the problem. Successive ministers defend this solution in interviews, promising to "improve it".

The BJP has decided to run an almost 'divine campaign' this year. I remember how on January 22, during the inauguration of the temple in Ayodhya, the media (supposedly "secular" India) had the headline "Ram aa Gaye" (Rama has come). Modi hoped that he would build an entire election narrative around this event, that he would be the one "who brought god to earth after centuries of humiliation." However, it seems to me that all the excitement surrounding the inauguration of the Ram Mandir has already faded away. The BJP itself is to blame for this. They used it for political purposes in such an obvious and brazen way that the event lost its religious overtones. What tipped the scales was the fact that only... one floor has been inaugurated, and the remaining two are not yet finished. Moreover, Ram's enthronement was not only performed by priests... but by Prime Minister Modi. Even the most naive and fanatical follower of the RSS/BJP will not doubt that this event was not about a religious ceremony, but a completely political spectacle.

However, the BJP seems to be aware of these problems. Therefore, several ministers who were previously sitting in the Rajya Sabha were deputed to race for the Lok Sabha seat (including heavyweights like Piyush Goyal). Long before the elections, the media speculated that External Affairs Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar and Finance Minister (both Brahmins from Tamil Nadu) would also enter the race for the Lok Sabha from Karnataka (where the BJP won a record 25 out of 28 seats from the state during the last elections)… but that's not going to happen.

A few days ago, Nirmala Sitharaman announced that the party had asked her to run from Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu, but she refused... because, as she claims, she has no money for the election campaign. First of all (as CPI(M) central committee member Brinda Karat notes) it is significant that the finance minister herself has no money for the campaign (so where is the money from electoral bonds that the BJP received!?). Another issue is that she confirmed in her speech what every thinking person knows - money wins elections in a bourgeois state, not votes or programs. Moreover, it seems that she did not want to embarrass herself - Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu (especially her native TN) are not safe states for BJP candidates - the probability of them winning seats is almost zero.

Does the fact that even some ministers are afraid to enter the race mean that the BJP will lose in a landslide or that at least the prospects of governing are lower for the saffron party? Nothing could be further from the truth. This election is missing one important element to Modi's loss of power - the opposition.

Just a few months ago, I believed that the Congress would be able to significantly improve its results (the elections in 2014 and 2019 were the biggest disaster in the 150-year history of the party - in 019, Rahul Gandhi even lost his hometown - Amethi, which traditionally belongs to the Nehru-Gandhi family). The party elected its first party leader from outside the Gandhi family - Malikarjun Kharge. This move has many advantages. Firstly, it would take away the fuel of the BJP that the Congress is a dynastic party (which is true) and to become a leader one only needs to be born into the Gandhi family. Moreover, Kharge, although he is not a fiery, charismatic speaker, is a very experienced politician - although he lost the elections in 2019, losing his seat in the Lok Sabha (he is currently an MP in the Rajya Sabha), but previously he won 11 elections in a row, starting his career in the 1972 year.

Moreover, he is a member of the old, still "left-wing" INC faction (today the party is completely neoliberal) - which gives better prospects for negotiations with the left to create an anti-BJP coalition. Another factor in Kharge's favour is the fact that he is a Dalit - thus the Congress playing caste politics (which the BJP is also doing by emphasizing that Prime Minister Modi himself is an OBC refuting... ineptly because just look at the fact that 10 out of 17 of the party's candidates in Bihar are UC that the BJP is a Brahmin party) could gain votes from the backward castes. The last important factor is that Kharge is from Karnataka, i.e. from the south, a region where the INC has recently gained strength (winning local elections in Karnataka and Telangana), and where the BJP (outside Karnataka) is completely weak and toothless.

With such aces up its sleeve, Congress has completely squandered this opportunity. It was known from the very beginning that Kharge was a loyalist of the Gandhi family and nothing would happen in the party without the consent of Sonia, Priyanka, and Rahul... and yet they could at least create the appearance that Kharge was an independent leader. However, the campaign shows that INC is not even trying to play up appearances. From January to March (i.e., at a time when parties were preparing for the elections, choosing candidates, and developing a strategy), Rahul Gandhi organized the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra - a march from the east of India to the west (delighted with the alleged success of his previous march from the south to the north - Bharat Jodo Yatra). Due to this unfortunate (and unsuccessful) march, Congress has significant delays in publishing the lists of candidates. The Congress central committee waited for Rahul (until more than mid-March) to confirm more important candidates. This means that the Congress candidates have not started the election campaign well yet (BJP or, for example, left-wing parties have already been in the field since the end of February, so the congress is almost a month late... that's a lot if you want to reach as many voters as possible). This, of course, showed that Kharge is a completely indecisive and puppet leader of the party.

Moreover, in terms of image, the Congress itself does not believe in winning. If this were the case, they would make a strategic move by fielding Kharge as the candidate and campaign leader in Karnataka and Rahul Gandhi in Telangana (or possibly in Karnataka as well). Such a move would show that the party is brave and wants to face the BJP. Meanwhile, Kharge is not running at all in these elections, and Rahul remained in Wayanad in Kerala, where his biggest opponent is... the coalition communist party. Well then, CPI general secretary D. Raja asked, "Who is the Congress fighting against then - the BJP or the Left?"

When it comes to Karnataka, the Congress is doing a pathetic job - prominent leaders, Karnataka government ministers, and MLAs, do not want to contest (because they are afraid of losing and losing face), so the party fielded mainly their sons or other family members...

Most states already have their election results decided. There is no doubt that the lotus will bloom again in UP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. It is also certain that the INDIA bloc will win in Kerala (the dispute is who will win more - the Congress or the communists), the opposition will also win in Tamil Nadu, Punjab, similarly in Telangana, where the BJP almost does not exist and the BRS, which lost power last autumn year falls apart before our eyes and its candidates move on to Congress.

This makes the NDA virtually certain (without much effort) to win about 180 seats. The secured INDIA block has only 80... The difference is colossal. But even if they take such numbers for granted (and we know that politics should never act like that), there are still 280 seats left in play.

Such "swinging states" (to use a term from American politics) include Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar, and West Bengal (a total of 135 places, i.e. almost half of those that, as I mentioned, are "in play").

Briefly expanding on the topic of Kerala. I have no doubt (as do all the polls) that the INDIA bloc will win all 20 seats there. The BJP hopes that they will manage to win 2 - Thiruvananantapuram and Thissru, but I consider it extremely unlikely. It has become a tradition in Kerala that the UDF (Congress-led coalition) wins most of the seats (except in the 2004 elections), while the LDF (communist party front) is far behind. In 2019 it was 18:2 for the UDF. This year the situation may be more difficult for the UDF. People in Kerala no longer believe that Rahul Gandhi (who is more of a tourist there than an MP) is a real contender to rule India. In 2019, the Rahul factor helped the UDF significantly. Moreover, the LDF is doing a lot of work by clearly opposing the implementation of the CAA, which is gaining Muslim votes (traditionally gathered by the UDF... after all, the Muslim League is part of the UDF). The LDF fielded strong candidates, while the UDF fielded incumbent parliamentarians. Also working to the detriment of the Congress is the fact that prominent faces of the party in Kerala - Anil Anthony, Padmaja Venugopal, and a few days ago the regional secretary of the INC joined the BJP. This deprives the party of credibility as a viable alternative to the BJP. I strongly believe that these factors will help the communist candidates and LDF will win around 5-8 seats in Kerala.

However, it is not Kerala that is catching the eye of INDIA and BJP leaders.

Some optimists (I am not one of them, but out of journalistic obligation I will quote their arguments) believe that in Rajasthan, where the NDA won all 25 seats in 2019, the opposition can achieve significant gains. This is because INDIA in the state also includes the regional RLP party, which has its vote base among the Jat group and has also been active during the farmers' protests. In 2019, RLP was a member of the BJP, but today it is in fierce opposition. CPI(ML) will field one candidate within the INDIA bloc, most of the candidates will come from the Congress. Therefore, optimists believe that INDIA can win as many as 8 to 10 seats in Rajasthan, which would be a great success (especially since the Congress lost power in the state to the BJP in November). I think that Congress would benefit significantly if Sachin Pilot ran in the elections... but he doesn't even think about it, although he is involved in the campaign. I consider such an optimistic scenario unlikely because in 2019 the BJP won most of the districts with over 50% support, so even an alliance with the RLP will not help the opposition much.

The next sniffing state is Karnataka. Apart from the mistakes INC made (and which I mentioned earlier), it is still not completely lost. The BJP is fighting internal fights, and party members are constantly threatening to rebel against the all-powerful in the state, BS Yediyurappa. However, the BJP not only has a problem with infighting within the party but also the NDA. The party managed to get support from the JD(S)... but the JD(S) members have no sympathy for the BJP and often there are fights between the workers of the BJP and the JD(S) at rallies. A poll conducted in March 2024 showed that INDIA could win 17 seats and NDA could win 11 from Karnataka... but polls in India are not worth trusting.

When it comes to Maharashtra, is a state where as many as 48 seats are up for grabs. The problem in predicting what will happen in the state is that the BJP has crushed two strong regional parties - the fascist Shiv Sena and the NCP. After the 2019 state elections, Shiv Sena, a long-time ally of the BJP, broke its alliance and joined hands with the INC and NCP. In 2022, Ekhnat Shinde left the Shiv Sena and a large part of the party formed a coalition with the BJP. This has resulted in two Shiv Senas in the state - Ekhnat Shinde's Shiv Sena (using the party symbol) and Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), whose father founded the party. And if that wasn't enough, the NCP also collapsed in 2023 when Ajit Pawar left the party and became a minister in the Shinde government, which makes these two NCPs too. There weren't many by-elections to verify who people perceived as the "real" NCP and SHS. Also, whether voters will punish the NDA (i.e. the BJP, SHS Shinde and Ajit Pawar's NCP) for creating political chaos in the state or reward them for sticking to the "Modi idea" remains an open question. There is currently a conflict between the INC and the SHS (UBT) over the distribution of seats, and traditionally, the Congress is completely missing out. The BJP currently has three ministers in the central government (Goyal, Gadkari, Dawane) and one in the Maharashtra government. However, the polls predict a tight fight 20-28 for the NDA, but there are also those giving INDIA 26 and the NDA 22.

Bihar is the next battlefield. India's poorest state sends 40 MP to Delhi. Recently, NAD won 39 seats. As part of the opposition, RJD will field 26 candidates, INC 9, CPI(ML)Liberation 3, CPI(M) 1. As for the NDA, they managed to get Nitish Kumar's JD(U) in February. The question is whether this will be an opportunity for the BJP to strengthen its grip in Bihar or perhaps a burden. Having changed fronts 7 times, Nitish Kumar may have damaged his image so much that he would become an image problem 3 months before the elections, which will also be determined by the results. Giving hope to the opposition is RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is gaining more and more popularity among the people of Bihar with his charisma. It is widely believed that Nitish Kumar's return and the dissolution of the Bihar government have benefited the RJD rather than the BJP. INDIA will certainly increase its holdings by winning more than 1 seat (polls predict 5-8 seats).

West Bengal is sending as many as 42 parliamentarians to Delhi. A state where communists were once a huge power in power for 34 years is now a state where the left does not occupy even a single seat in the Legislative Assembly. Additionally, the ruling TMC in the state has decided to field candidates in all constituencies. This means that the INDIA alliance will have 2 candidates in all districts - the TMC candidate and the Sanjukta Morcha candidate (i.e. the INC coalition with the communists). Additionally, SM was unable to reach an agreement with the Indian Secular Front, which will field candidates in 8 constituencies. To the detriment of the TMC are pervasive corruption, lack of development in the state since taking power and anti-incumbency (they have been in power since 2011). Additionally, TMC members are often involved in violence against opposition parties (killing both BJP members and communists). Recently, the Sandeshkhali incident has also been their problem. One of the TMC leaders allegedly raped several women in this town and forced farmers to give up their land (paradoxically, the TMC gained power by accusing the communists of depriving peasants of land to build factories). After the change of leadership, the communists have recently become very active and their popularity is resurgent, although it is not certain whether it will be enough to win any mandate in these elections. Perhaps he will go to state general secretary Mohammed Salim. Optimists also point to the possibility of Sujan Chakraborty winning seats in Dum Dum and Srijan Bhattacharyya in Jadavpur, although this seems even less likely than a quite possible (though still uncertain) victory for Salim. INC hopes that at least INC's Bengali leaders, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Isha Khan Choudhury will win the seat, meaning the party will maintain its hold on 2 seats. Some polls show that INC will win 3-4 seats and CPIM 1... but most polls show complete polarization between TMC and BJP, with everyone agreeing that the scandals are working in favour of the BJP which could bring the first victory in history of the state for the saffron party.

So, although the opposition is rather giving these elections a walkover (with a few exceptions, such as the attitude of the communists or the RJD), the BJP feels afraid of losing power. Therefore, in typical political cases, the central anti-corruption services arrested as many as two chief ministers - Jharkhand CM Herman Soren and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. JMM limits its reach only to Jharakhand, but Kejriwal is known throughout India, and his AAP party recently gained the status of a national party and rules in Delhi and Punjab. His arrest clearly showed the weakness of the opposition (especially the liberal one, which includes AAP). Lack of any dedicated supporter base. It was only after 10 days that AAP was able to organize small demonstrations in support of its leader with the support of the INC... to which Kejriwal, from prison, appealed to his supporters "not to attack his brothers and sisters from the BJP". It's hard to comment on it as an expression of complete weakness and incompetence.

Additionally, INC's assets were frozen due to alleged irregularities related to the party's tax matters. This leaves the main opposition party with virtually no money for its campaign. INC leaders in Kerala have already announced that if they do not find other means, they will have to organize a fundraiser among their supporters and party members. This is probably also the reason for delaying the lists of candidates - the longer the campaign, the greater individual financial outlays it requires. However, a short campaign means the risk of lack of recognition and, consequently, loss.

Even though at times the Congress party is optimistic, saying that "in 2004, no one expected Vajpayee to lose, and this time it was the Congress that formed the government." And maybe they are right... although there seems to be no evidence of this. Indeed, the goal for the BJP to win 400 seats is unlikely, or even for the NDA to win 400 seats. These elections may rather slightly reduce the number of votes in the Lok Sabha, but any other scenarios are rather unlikely... although in politics you never know - especially since there are still 2 months until the end of the elections, which is quite a long time. With such aces up its sleeve, Congress has completely squandered this opportunity. It was known from the very beginning that Kharge was a loyalist of the Gandhi family and nothing would happen in the party without the consent of Sonia, Priyanka, and Rahul... and yet they could at least create the appearance that Kharge was an independent leader. However, the campaign shows that INC is not even trying to play up appearances. From January to March (i.e., at a time when parties were preparing for the elections, choosing candidates, and developing a strategy), Rahul Gandhi organized the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra - a march from the east of India to the west (delighted with the alleged success of his previous march from the south to the north - Bharat Jodo Yatra). Due to this unfortunate (and unsuccessful) march, Congress has significant delays in publishing the lists of candidates. The Congress central committee waited for Rahul (until more than mid-March) to confirm more important candidates. This means that the Congress candidates have not started the election campaign well yet (BJP or, for example, left-wing parties have already been in the field since the end of February, so the congress is almost a month late... that's a lot if you want to reach as many voters as possible). This, of course, showed that Kharge is a completely indecisive and puppet leader of the party.

Moreover, in terms of image, the Congress itself does not believe in winning. If this were the case, they would make a strategic move by fielding Kharge as the candidate and campaign leader in Karnataka and Rahul Gandhi in Telangana (or possibly in Karnataka as well). Such a move would show that the party is brave and wants to face the BJP. Meanwhile, Kharge is not running at all in these elections, and Rahul remained in Wayanad in Kerala, where his biggest opponent is... the coalition communist party. Well then, CPI general secretary D. Raja asked, "Who is the Congress fighting against then - the BJP or the Left?"

When it comes to Karnataka, the Congress is doing a pathetic job - prominent leaders, Karnataka government ministers, and MLAs, do not want to contest (because they are afraid of losing and losing face), so the party fielded mainly their sons or other family members...

Most states already have their election results decided. There is no doubt that the lotus will bloom again in UP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. It is also certain that the INDIA bloc will win in Kerala (the dispute is who will win more - the Congress or the communists), the opposition will also win in Tamil Nadu, Punjab, similarly in Telangana, where the BJP almost does not exist and the BRS, which lost power last autumn year falls apart before our eyes and its candidates move on to Congress.

This makes the NDA virtually certain (without much effort) to win about 180 seats. The secured INDIA block has only 80... The difference is colossal. But even if they take such numbers for granted (and we know that politics should never act like that), there are still 280 seats left in play.

Such "swinging states" (to use a term from American politics) include Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar, and West Bengal (a total of 135 places, i.e. almost half of those that, as I mentioned, are "in play").

Briefly expanding on the topic of Kerala. I have no doubt (as do all the polls) that the INDIA bloc will win all 20 seats there. The BJP hopes that they will manage to win 2 - Thiruvananantapuram and Thissru, but I consider it extremely unlikely. It has become a tradition in Kerala that the UDF (Congress-led coalition) wins most of the seats (except in the 2004 elections), while the LDF (communist party front) is far behind. In 2019 it was 18:2 for the UDF. This year the situation may be more difficult for the UDF. People in Kerala no longer believe that Rahul Gandhi (who is more of a tourist there than an MP) is a real contender to rule India. In 2019, the Rahul factor helped the UDF significantly. Moreover, the LDF is doing a lot of work by clearly opposing the implementation of the CAA, which is gaining Muslim votes (traditionally gathered by the UDF... after all, the Muslim League is part of the UDF). The LDF fielded strong candidates, while the UDF fielded incumbent parliamentarians. Also working to the detriment of the Congress is the fact that prominent faces of the party in Kerala - Anil Anthony, Padmaja Venugopal, and a few days ago the regional secretary of the INC joined the BJP. This deprives the party of credibility as a viable alternative to the BJP. I strongly believe that these factors will help the communist candidates and LDF will win around 5-8 seats in Kerala.

However, it is not Kerala that is catching the eye of INDIA and BJP leaders.

Some optimists (I am not one of them, but out of journalistic obligation I will quote their arguments) believe that in Rajasthan, where the NDA won all 25 seats in 2019, the opposition can achieve significant gains. This is because INDIA in the state also includes the regional RLP party, which has its vote base among the Jat group and has also been active during the farmers' protests. In 2019, RLP was a member of the BJP, but today it is in fierce opposition. CPI(ML) will field one candidate within the INDIA bloc, most of the candidates will come from the Congress. Therefore, optimists believe that INDIA can win as many as 8 to 10 seats in Rajasthan, which would be a great success (especially since the Congress lost power in the state to the BJP in November). I think that Congress would benefit significantly if Sachin Pilot ran in the elections... but he doesn't even think about it, although he is involved in the campaign. I consider such an optimistic scenario unlikely because in 2019 the BJP won most of the districts with over 50% support, so even an alliance with the RLP will not help the opposition much.

The next sniffing state is Karnataka. Apart from the mistakes INC made (and which I mentioned earlier), it is still not completely lost. The BJP is fighting internal fights, and party members are constantly threatening to rebel against the all-powerful in the state, BS Yediyurappa. However, the BJP not only has a problem with infighting within the party but also the NDA. The party managed to get support from the JD(S)... but the JD(S) members have no sympathy for the BJP and often there are fights between the workers of the BJP and the JD(S) at rallies. A poll conducted in March 2024 showed that INDIA could win 17 seats and NDA could win 11 from Karnataka... but polls in India are not worth trusting.

When it comes to Maharashtra, is a state where as many as 48 seats are up for grabs. The problem in predicting what will happen in the state is that the BJP has crushed two strong regional parties - the fascist Shiv Sena and the NCP. After the 2019 state elections, Shiv Sena, a long-time ally of the BJP, broke its alliance and joined hands with the INC and NCP. In 2022, Ekhnat Shinde left the Shiv Sena and a large part of the party formed a coalition with the BJP. This has resulted in two Shiv Senas in the state - Ekhnat Shinde's Shiv Sena (using the party symbol) and Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), whose father founded the party. And if that wasn't enough, the NCP also collapsed in 2023 when Ajit Pawar left the party and became a minister in the Shinde government, which makes these two NCPs too. There weren't many by-elections to verify who people perceived as the "real" NCP and SHS. Also, whether voters will punish the NDA (i.e. the BJP, SHS Shinde and Ajit Pawar's NCP) for creating political chaos in the state or reward them for sticking to the "Modi idea" remains an open question. There is currently a conflict between the INC and the SHS (UBT) over the distribution of seats, and traditionally, Congress is completely missing out. The BJP currently has three ministers in the central government (Goyal, Gadkari, Dawane) and one in the Maharashtra government. However, the polls predict a tight fight 20-28 for the NDA, but there are also those giving INDIA 26 and the NDA 22.

Bihar is the next battlefield. India's poorest state sends 40 MP to Delhi. Recently, NAD won 39 seats. As part of the opposition, RJD will field 26 candidates, INC 9, CPI(ML)Liberation 3, CPI(M) 1. As for the NDA, they managed to get Nitish Kumar's JD(U) in February. The question is whether this will be an opportunity for the BJP to strengthen its grip in Bihar or perhaps a burden. Having changed fronts 7 times, Nitish Kumar may have damaged his image so much that he would become an image problem 3 months before the elections, which will also be determined by the results. Giving hope to the opposition is RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is gaining more and more popularity among the people of Bihar with his charisma. It is widely believed that Nitish Kumar's return and the dissolution of the Bihar government have benefited the RJD rather than the BJP. INDIA will certainly increase its holdings by winning more than 1 seat (polls predict 5-8 seats).