Can Imran Khan Come Back To Power? Understanding Current Affairs In Pakistan

Pakistani political analysts in the diaspora predict an Imran Khan comeback as early as mid-2025. With recent acquittals in cases, could this be a reality?

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Mar 25, 2024

To gain a comprehensive understanding of a country's political landscape, delving into its historical context is of paramount importance. The escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO in Ukraine, for instance, precipitated a significant political upheaval in Pakistan. At the time, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was in the midst of negotiating crucial trade agreements with Russia, aiming to secure advantageous rates for grain and oil imports to alleviate Pakistan's burgeoning IMF debt. According to expert analysis, this strategic alliance with Russia could have provided Pakistan with a viable solution to combat its escalating inflation rates. However, considering Pakistan's longstanding alliance with the USA, the feasibility of such a deal with Russia amidst escalating Western hostilities against the former was questionable, in the eyes of the US.

Subsequent revelations from Pentagon leaks suggested that the US diplomat Donald Lu exerted pressure and offered financial incentives to Pakistani politicians to defect from their parties, orchestrating a parliamentary coup against Imran Khan. Khan himself initially attributed the coup to American intervention, although he subsequently moderated his stance in the ensuing months.

US diplomat Donald Lu testified and denied all allegations against him a few days ago in front of Congress. This contradicts Pakistan’s diplomat, Asad Majeed’s multiple testimonies about being pressured.

If Imran Khan was ejected by the US, how was all of this even possible?

Pakistan’s Unholy Alliance With The USA

For a period of 250 years, Pakistan endured British colonialism. Upon achieving independence in 1947 and separating from the remainder of the Indian Subcontinent, the globe found itself in the midst of the Cold War. Unlike its neighbour India, which adopted a non-aligned stance, Pakistan's leadership made a clear choice of allegiance.

In the aftermath of independence, India and Pakistan found themselves in conflict over the region of Kashmir. The Pakistani military received support in the form of weaponry and intelligence from the United States, marking the inception of a problematic alliance between Pakistan and the United States, which has had lasting detrimental effects on Pakistan. Whether the United States provided arms to Pakistan during this war is contested in some circles of academia, but it is mostly agreed upon that the US did help Pakistan with intelligence in the Kashmir province.

Throughout the years, the Pakistani military has been involved in various activities that have compromised the safety of its citizens, including aiding Israel, participating in the war on terror, and training groups such as Al Qaida and the Taliban at the request of the United States. The primary victims of this relationship with the United States have been the majority of Pakistani people who live in poverty and bear the brunt of the consequences of their leaders' actions.

The United States has consistently provided substantial funding to the Pakistani military. The military's structure in Pakistan remains a vestige of British rule, with the military exerting control over numerous aspects of governance within the country. No individual has ever assumed the role of head of state in Pakistan without the approval of the military.

Under the auspices of the United States, Pakistan has experienced two brutal military dictatorships, enabling military institutions to exert significant influence over the country since its inception. It was not until December 1970 that Pakistan held its inaugural assembly elections following independence. Since then, two political families, the Sharifs and the Bhuttos, have dominated Pakistan's nominal democracy.

Nawaz Sharif, who was closely associated with Zia Ul Haq, emerged as a prominent far-right leader in Pakistan during this time. The Bhuttos rose to prominence due to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was ultimately killed in prison by Zia Ul Haq. Bhutto presented himself as a socialist leader with a political ideology akin to that of a typical social democrat.

To date, neither the Sharifs nor the Bhuttos have been able to complete a full term in office, with some experts attributing this to their pervasive corruption and others speculating that it is due to military interference in governance.

Over time, the Sharifs and Bhuttos have amassed a significant portion of Pakistan's wealth, which they have stored in tax havens through lucrative contracts with American and British companies.

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Who Was Imran Khan

Imran Khan, a revered figure in Pakistan, has consistently garnered the admiration and backing of his compatriots. His illustrious cricket career reached its pinnacle when he led the national team to a historic World Cup victory, marking Pakistan's sole triumph in the tournament to date. Following his retirement from sports, Khan's philanthropic endeavours kept him in the public eye, with his establishment and support of Pakistan's most extensive cancer and children's hospitals.

In the mid-1990s, Khan ventured into politics, founding the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party in 1996. As an Oxford alumnus with extensive international exposure, he brought a global perspective to his political career. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Khan publicly denounced the Western invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. He was particularly vocal about his opposition to the Iraq war, predicting that it would destabilize the entire region and the broader Muslim-Arab world.

Khan's critique was informed by his understanding of the U.S.'s covert operations in Pakistan during the Soviet-Afghan war, which transformed the country into a clandestine training ground for mujahideen fighters. The consequences of this radical infiltration continue to impact Pakistan. Khan foresaw that a regional conflict would wreak havoc on Pakistan, a prediction that subsequently materialized.

Throughout the protracted and unsuccessful war on terror, countless innocent Pakistanis have lost their lives, with some estimates suggesting a death toll of approximately 100,000. In addition, numerous Pakistani soldiers were killed while aiding the United States in their illegal war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Khan also accurately anticipated that the Taliban's influence could not be eradicated through the indiscriminate bombing of Afghan civilians, but rather through negotiation and education. Following the U.S.-funded overthrow of Socialist Afghanistan by the Mujahideen, many Afghan refugees sought sanctuary in Pakistan. Over time, these refugees have often been subjected to mistreatment and often were reduced to second-class citizenship, even under the “liberal” rule of the Bhuttos. For example, during the 1990s under the "liberal" leadership of Benazir Bhutto, Afghan families were forced to evade Pakistani police brutality and raids on refugee camps by hiding in gutters.

Any Pakistani leader or scholar with anti-imperialist and populist leanings would be acutely aware of the realities of the conflicts in Afghanistan. Thus, Khan's criticism was motivated by concerns for both the safety of Pakistanis and Afghans.

In August 2018, Imran Khan and his PTI party emerged victorious in the assembly elections, propelling him to the position of Pakistan's Prime Minister. This marked the first instance in Pakistan's electoral history that a head of state was neither a Bhutto nor a Sharif.

All Words, Nothing To Show?

During his 2018 campaign, Imran Khan presented a multitude of commitments aimed at economic rejuvenation, development, and welfare initiatives for Pakistan. His political image was initially perceived as a potential threat by Western elites, drawing parallels with Donald Trump, primarily due to his critical stance on aggressive United States foreign policy. During and after the 2018 campaign, the West led by US media kept framing Imran Khan to be the Trump of Pakistan and a Taliban stooge.

Imran Khan assumed office at a critical juncture when Pakistan was grappling with significant challenges. These included a scarcity of suitable employment opportunities for the youth, public institutions on the brink of collapse, escalating national debt, and a depreciating currency. Despite his robust rhetoric not resonating with Western powers, Khan found a strategic ally in China.

Coinciding with the initiation of Belt and Road projects in Pakistan, US-funded Islamic State factions began targeting Chinese engineers working in the northern regions of Pakistan, aiming to undermine the infrastructure developments. The Chinese private and state-led companies found it difficult to operate in Pakistan, despite Khan’s security promises to them, causing slight cracks in the relations with China.

Amidst challenges on the development front, Imran Khan endeavoured to institute a healthcare program, which unfortunately was derailed by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast to Russia and China, which acknowledged the global devastation caused by COVID-19 and consequently forgave the debts of several countries in the Global South, Pakistan's Western partners did not offer similar relief to Pakistan.

Another key element of Khan's 2018 campaign was his stance against corruption. Over time, Khan gained a reputation among Pakistanis as an upright and affluent individual, making him more trustworthy than other political elites in the country. His pledge to hold corrupt politicians, such as Nawaz Sharif, accountable was a popular message during the 2018 elections. For instance, Sharif had left Pakistan for the United Kingdom amidst corruption charges.

Regrettably, none of Khan's anti-corruption pledges materialized during his term. Pakistan's entrenched political system thwarted Khan's promises, leaving him ensnared in long-standing bureaucratic structures. However, this failure served as a rallying point for Khan's adversaries, who waited patiently for an opportunity to strike.

Khan's empathetic approach towards the everyday Pakistani was a significant factor in his widespread popularity. Unlike the Pakistani elite, he was able to establish a genuine connection with the people on a personal level, which had been absent for decades.

Utilizing his widespread recognition and compassionate methodology, Imran Khan engaged directly with constituents through various social media platforms, marking a significant departure from the strategies employed by his predecessors in the Pakistani leadership. Platforms such as Twitter Spaces and YouTube live streams were leveraged to address inquiries from the public, fostering a unique connection between the leader and his audience.

Khan's strategic use of social media served to instil a sense of national pride and democratic values among the populace. Furthermore, he frequently employed these platforms to shed light on the alleged corruption of political rivals, including Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif.

Khan's initiatives to educate the public on the rule of law and parliamentary procedures resonated particularly with the younger demographic of Pakistan. Despite facing opposition from mainstream Pakistani media and the broader establishment, Khan's live streams garnered millions of views, and his support base continued to expand.

In conclusion, Imran Khan's leadership, despite his ambitious rhetoric, was largely characterized by neo-liberal policies influenced by Western powers and the IMF. His term exposed a significant gap in his governance experience, policy creation, and strategic diplomacy with international powers. Critics of Khan often attribute the exacerbation of Pakistan's economic crises to his lack of diplomatic finesse. This underscores the complex challenges leaders face in balancing domestic governance and international diplomacy.

Getting Burned

As a Pakistani political figure, it is crucial to maintain a positive relationship with the military to ensure a successful political career. During his trip to Moscow, Imran Khan demonstrated his commitment to Pakistan's independence from US influence by pursuing an independent foreign policy. This policy aimed to establish Pakistan's autonomy in its relations with other countries, rather than being dictated by US interests.

However, Khan's visit to Moscow coincided with Russia's military conflict with Ukraine, which put him in a difficult position. Starting in 2016, the relationship between the US and Russia had been deteriorating, and Khan's endeavours to negotiate advantageous trade agreements with Russia may have been seen as a contentious action.

In post-visit interviews, Khan refused to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine, which further strained his relationship with the US. The US has traditionally viewed Pakistan as a subordinate ally, and Khan's decision to assert Pakistan's independence and refrain from criticizing Putin was seen as a challenge to US authority.

Earlier in the year, Khan also refused to allow the US to use Pakistani airspace to conduct drone strikes in Afghanistan. The US had been bombing Afghanistan since its chaotic withdrawal from the country, and Khan's opposition to US involvement in Afghanistan is rooted in concerns about the negative impact it has had on Pakistan's domestic security. By refusing to allow the US to use Pakistani airspace, Khan was asserting Pakistan's sovereignty and prioritizing its own interests.

From the perspective of the United States, Imran Khan had become an unmanageable entity. The potential benefits of the trade agreement for Pakistan, which was presumably the main motivation for Khan's visit to Moscow, held no significance for the US. The crux of the matter was Khan's unintentional affront to the US, demonstrated by his refusal to grant access to their airspace and his subsequent refusal to condemn Russia.

The State Of Chaos

In April 2022, Imran Khan's tenure as the Prime Minister of Pakistan was terminated following a parliamentary vote of no confidence. This political upheaval was precipitated by several ministers from his ruling PTI party defecting to other political factions.

Later surfaced Pentagon documents, as reported by the Intercept, suggest that a mid-ranking diplomat, Donald Lu, from the United States had tacitly endorsed the Pakistani diplomats' decision to orchestrate the coup. Before this, Imran Khan had alleged that General Bajwa was complicit in the conspiracy to overthrow him, which had strained his relationship with the military.

Despite his removal from office, Imran Khan's popularity among the public has surged. His supporters have been staging weekly demonstrations in his favour, demanding his reinstatement. Since his ousting, Khan has been advocating for general elections to be held, as stipulated by the Pakistani constitution. The constitution mandates that if a government, either at the state or federal level, is dissolved, elections must be conducted within the subsequent 90 days. However, an alternative interpretation of the constitution suggests that the election dates must be announced within 90 days following the dissolution of a government.

Imran Khan has been mobilizing his supporters to demand a general election. Given his status as the most popular politician in Pakistan, it is anticipated that the interim regime that has assumed power would suffer significant losses in the polls if elections were to be held. Consequently, the regime has resorted to legal manoeuvring or what is called lawfare. It is to be noted that the coup regime that took over from Imran Khan was a government of coalition between the Sharifs and Bhuttos and more than 12 parties in an unholy but desperate alliance. The goal was to keep Imran Khan out of power, to curry favours from the United States in the form of new IMF loans.

The lawfare began with corruption allegations previously levelled against the Sharifs and Bhuttos, now being directed at Imran Khan. After consulting with several Pakistani legal experts, it has been concluded that the majority of the charges against Khan are baseless and, in some cases, blatantly false.

According to the interim regime, Imran Khan has been implicated in 142 serious offences, including murder, terrorism, and treason, since he assumed office in 2018. In addition to these major charges, other cases allege Khan accepted bribes from foreign governments, specifically the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia.

Since May 2022, Pakistan has witnessed a significant surge in protests and state-led violence, primarily targeting members and supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Over 10,000 PTI affiliates have been incarcerated, and several journalists who provided favourable coverage to PTI leader Imran Khan have been subjected to extra-judicial persecution, leading to their disappearance from the public sphere. Shabaz Sharif, then serving as the interim Prime Minister, exerted considerable effort to suppress Imran Khan's supporters.

Several ministers associated with Imran Khan have withdrawn from politics due to threats of violence and extra-judicial persecution against them and their families. This political turmoil has been viewed favourably by the United States.

In mid-2023, a fresh wave of violent protests erupted, triggered by the Sharif regime's agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise taxes on Pakistan's already impoverished and inflation-burdened population. The unrest escalated further when the regime repeatedly postponed elections, initially from October 2022 to May 2023, and subsequently to early 2024.

Imran Khan was frequently summoned to courts and was often taken in by Pakistan's special forces police in armoured vehicles. He survived two assassination attempts and violent assaults at the hands of the state police and commandos, further inflaming his supporters.

On May 9, riots erupted in Islamabad, resulting in substantial damage to government and military installations as the protests turned violent and clashed with law enforcement. The government retaliated with a mobile internet shutdown and a crackdown on PTI leaders, workers, supporters, and those perceived to be affiliated with the party within the media and legal professions. Civilian trials in military courts were also initiated, a move currently being challenged in the Supreme Court. The PTI claims that the incidents of May 9 were a false flag operation orchestrated by the military establishment to destabilize the party and implicate Imran Khan. Some of the charges of terrorism and treason against Khan, among the 142 allegations, stem from the events of May 9.

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Current Affairs In Pakistan

On the 28th of February, 2024, Pakistan conducted its general elections amidst significant political developments. Notably, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, led by Imran Khan, was prohibited from participating, including Khan himself. In response, Khan's supporters attempted to rebrand the PTI and adopt a cricket bat as their new symbol, a move that was subsequently banned by the incumbent Sharif administration.

In light of these restrictions, many PTI members chose to run as independent candidates across various districts and all five states of Pakistan. Despite Imran Khan's incarceration, these independent candidates garnered substantial public support, ultimately securing a majority mandate for Khan's loyalists.

However, Pakistan's political elite disregarded the public's choice, instead forming a fragile coalition comprising 22 local parties. During the coalition negotiations, the Bhuttos and Sharifs found themselves in a deadlock over the position of Prime Minister. Eventually, they reached a consensus, resulting in Shabaz Sharif's reinstatement as the Prime Minister. This outcome, however, did not align with the electoral mandate or the will of the Pakistani populace, as PTI members running as independents won a majority of the seats.

On the 4th of March, 2024, Shabaz Sharif assumed the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan for the second time, despite the expression of concerns by various international observers. This occurred concurrently with the continued incarceration of his predecessor, Imran Khan.

Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has faced multiple corruption charges. One of the most notable cases is related to the Ashiana-e-Iqbal Housing Scheme, in which he is accused of ordering the cancellation of a contract given to successful bidder Chaudhry Latif and Sons for the low-cost housing scheme, which resulted in a loss of millions of rupees to the national exchequer. He is also accused of misusing his authority by ordering the Punjab Land Development Company (PLDC) to assign the project to the Lahore Development Authority (LDA), resulting in the award of the contract to a "proxy" group at a higher cost.
Another corruption case against Shehbaz Sharif is related to the Ramzan Sugar Mills case. He is accused of misusing his authority as the Chief Minister of Punjab to benefit the sugar mills owned by his sons.
Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, has also faced multiple corruption charges. The most notable case is related to the Panama Papers leak, which revealed that his children owned offshore companies and assets that were not disclosed. This led to his disqualification from office by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in 2017. He was also sentenced to 10 years in prison in the Avenfield properties case, but was released on bail pending appeal.

Subsequently, on the 20th of March, 2024, Imran Khan was exonerated in two cases of vandalism stemming from the civil unrest that took place on the 9th of May, 2023. This development has instilled a sense of optimism among Khan's supporters, as they perceive this outcome as a potential precedent that could lead to Khan's acquittal in other charges related to the same date. It is noteworthy that, along with Khan, other prominent figures of his political party, Asad Umar and Asad Qaiser, were also absolved of these charges.

Since the recent acquittals, Imran Khan’s comrades have been challenging the Sharif overturning of the elections in Pakistan High Court. Here is a recent statement from Imran Khan’s sister, Aleema Khan talking to press. In this statement, Miss Khan suggests that the 2024 election was stollen from PTI members and Khan loyalists and the elections will be upheld if the courts are to see the evidence of fraud and intimidation from the interim coup Regime of Shabaz Sharif.

What Next?

In the wake of Imran Khan's removal from power, a significant number of scholars, seasoned journalists, and political analysts have drawn parallels between Khan's current situation and the ordeal faced by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s. Bhutto, a prominent figure who was incarcerated for his staunch resistance against the then-autocrat Zia Ul Haq, met a tragic end while in prison. This historical precedent has sparked apprehensions among Khan's followers, who fear for his safety in Pakistan's prisons, given the prevailing mistrust in the state's law enforcement agencies and institutions.

These concerns are not baseless, considering the two assassination attempts on Khan's life and the documented incident of state commandos assaulting him. This anxiety stems from a deep understanding of the Pakistani bureaucracy and political landscape, which has been shaped by decades of experience.

After engaging in discussions with senior journalist and political analyst Raza Rumi, and historian Junaid Ahmad, both renowned for their expertise in Pakistani affairs, a consensus emerges. They predict that Imran Khan is likely to be exonerated of all major charges in the courts, albeit the timeline for this remains uncertain.

Rumi, in a bold prediction, asserts that Imran Khan could reclaim his position at the forefront of Pakistani politics as soon as 2025. However, Ahmad, while acknowledging the possibility, expresses reservations about this timeline.

The predictions of these experts are rooted in their comprehensive understanding of Pakistan's complex political dynamics and historical trends. Since Shabaz Sharif assumed control of the coup government in 2022, Pakistan's economic situation has failed to show signs of improvement. The rule of law and order is in a state of disarray, with a majority of Pakistanis refusing to recognize the coup regime as a legitimate governing body.

The condition of public services remains deplorable, with the coup regime dedicating minimal efforts towards governance. Instead, the Sharif administration has primarily focused on the imprisonment and harassment of Imran Khan and his supporters.

With IMF debts mounting and no visible progress, the Pakistani military's support for this regime is limited. Amidst the Middle East's impending regional war and terror attacks on Pakistani soil, the military is expected to intervene to end the political turmoil in Pakistan.

Shabaz Sharif, notorious for mismanaging the state of Punjab and corruption, is likely to lose favour with the military, as predicted by Mr Rumi. The state can only inflict so much violence on its citizens for protesting against an illegitimate regime.

Regrettably, as these legal disputes unfold, the citizens of Pakistan will continue to endure a state of ambiguity, dissatisfaction, and unrest, stemming from the perceived injustices perpetrated by the incumbent Shabaz Sharif administration. The journalists, PTI advocates, and government officials who have reportedly been subjected to harassment and mysterious disappearances since the ousting of Imran Khan, may never experience comprehensive justice. The global community may remain oblivious to the full extent of the alleged illicit activities of the Sharif-Bhutto regime following Imran Khan's downfall. This perspective resonates with Khan and his vocal supporters, who continue evading unwarranted persecution.