Upcoming Elections In India And The State Of The Left

Will the Indian Left manage to survive in the thicket of growing Hindutva and how is it preparing for this fight?

The elections in India are fast approaching. It will probably become clear at the turn of April and May whether Narendra Modi will remain prime minister for the third time in a row. Therefore, at the end of 2023, opposition parties formed an alliance called I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Ultimately, however, as the elections approached, several members (like Nitish Kumar's JD(U)) left the alliance and joined the BJP-led NDA alliance. Other members (such as TMC from West Bengal and Jammu and Kashmir National Conference) have announced that they will run independently in their states without leaving the I.N.D.I.A. alliance. This means that the division of seats that will be contested in the upcoming elections is based on state alliances rather than one nationwide alliance. In this article, I would like to focus particularly on one group of parties that are part of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance - namely, the communist parties.

I.N.D.I.A. currently consists of 35 parties, the largest and most important of which is, of course, the great old party, the Indian National Congress. There are three communist parties in the entire alliance. Listing from the largest: Communist Party of India (Marxist) - CPI(M), Communist Party of India - CPI and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation - CPI (ML)L. For the CPI(M) in particular, this election is an extremely important event because it will likely determine whether the party (the only one of the three) retains the status of a national party in India.

Currently, in India, the Election Commission recognizes only 6 parties as national parties. This is important for several reasons. National parties are granted an exclusively reserved symbol for their candidates to use across the country, making it easier for voters to identify their preferred party on the ballot.  National party status allows a party to fight elections throughout India, fielding candidates in any state and thereby expanding its base, influence, and nationwide presence.  Candidates from national parties need only one proposer when filing nomination papers, simplifying the nomination process and providing easier access to the voter list. National parties receive government land allocation in New Delhi for their national president and office space at subsidized rates. National parties benefit from free airtime on public broadcasters like Doordarshan and All India Radio during general elections, helping them reach a wider audience and convey their message.

A registered party is recognized as a national party only if it fulfills any one of the three conditions listed below:

1)      The party wins two percent of seats in the Lok Sabha (which is 11 seats) from at least three different states.

2)      At a general election to Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party polls six percent of votes in any four or more states, and in addition it wins four Lok Sabha seats.

3)      The party gets recognition as a state party in four states.

Communist parties in India have been struggling with declining popularity for many years. In total, in the history of independent India, they ruled in three states - Kerala, West Bengal, and Tripura, today they rule only in Kerala. In the Lok Sabha (lower house of the Indian Parliament) elections in 2019, the CPI(M) won only 3 seats and 1.75% of the votes nationally, which puts it in a risky position of losing the status of a national party (the Election Commission revoked this status from the CPI in 2023, because the party has not met any of the above-mentioned criteria for many years).

That is why - at least so I think - the leadership of the communist parties decided to mobilize and field strategic candidates (especially in Kerala, where they have the greatest chance of winning seats).

In Tamil Nadu, the communist parties will field two candidates each - CPI in two constituencies (currently the party has the only parliamentarians from Tamil Nadu), and CPI(M) also in two constituencies - the party also has two Lok Sabha members from this state. The ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu has not allotted the Coimbatore constituency to the CPI(M), which it has held since 2019. Instead of this constituency, the CPI(M) will field its candidate in Dindigul.

In Assam, where 14 Lok Sabha seats are up for grabs, the CPI(M) has fielded the incumbent MLA of Assam's Legislative Assembly Manoranjan Talukdar in the Barpeta constituency and demanded the Congress to withdraw its candidate. So far, INC has not responded. The CPI also intends to field candidates in two constituencies in the state. The party has already fielded its candidate in the Jorhat constituency against the incumbent BJP MP and prominent INC member Gaurav Gogi, who is the INC's deputy chief in the Lok Sabha.

In Bihar, the opposition alliance Mahagathbandhan is yet to announce seat sharing. There, during the state elections, the communist parties achieved huge success [especially the CPI(ML)L]. Media leaks say that the communist parties will receive 6 seats to divide among themselves [probably 4 CPI(ML)L, 1 CPI and 1 CPI(M)].

Tripura remains uncertain with only 2 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs. Recently, the regional tribal Tipra Motha Party joined the NDA a few days ago, which may mean that both seats will be won by the NDA (one seat will be won by the BJP, whose candidate from this state for the Lok Sabha (West Tripura constituency) is a former Chief Minister of the Tripura Biplab Kumar Deb, and the other seat will be given to the NDA by Tipra Motha). It is not known what division I.N.D.I.A. will use. in this state, but the INC candidate will probably fight for one seat and the CPI(M) for the other.

Another unknown is the state of West Bengal - the former bastion of the Indian left. This is an important state because it sends as many as 42 members to the Lok Sabha. In 2019, the CPI(M) did not win a single seat and the INC only won two. Mamata Banerjee, who has been in power in the state since 2011, said that her party TMC will fight on its own in all 42 seats even though it remains part of I.N.D.I.A. It seems that the INC top leadership still hopes for an alliance with the TMC (which is why they are yet to announce candidates from West Bengal), while the local leadership, led by INC leader in the Lok Sabha Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, publicly says that it does not want any alliance with the TMC and they will share places with communists. A few days ago, CPI(M) leader in West Bengal MD Salim announced that "the party will not wait forever for the Congress's offer and if necessary, it will field candidates in all 42 constituencies." And no wonder - there is less and less time for the campaign.

That is why the Left Front in West Bengal announced its candidates in 16 constituencies a few days ago. However, they emphasized that there is still room for an agreement with INC. This move appears to be aimed at putting pressure on Congress to finalize (or officially reject) an agreement with the left in the state.

Explaining the arithmetic, a CPI(M) source said the party has decided to contest 22 seats by itself. Nine other seats will be shared with members of the Left Front. For the larger alliance—with forces like the Congress or Indian Secular Front (ISF)—11 seats have been identified. The categorization is flexible and exchange of seats is possible in case a strong alliance works out, the source said.

However, the greatest hopes of the Indian left remain in Kerala. Although the Left Democratic Front (which includes the CPI(M) and the CPI) has been ruling Kerala since 2016 (and before that for most of the time since India's independence), it has not achieved significant success in the Lok Sabha elections. The last time the LDF won more Lok Sabha seats from Kerala than the UDF (United Democratic Front led by the Indian National Congress) was in the 2004 elections.

There is little doubt that in Kerala the game will be within I.N.D.I.A. and not between I.N.D.I.A. and NDA. The real fight will be between LDF vs. candidates. UDF and NDA will not win a single seat - but this does not mean that the BJP candidates are irrelevant. Candidates supported by Prime Minister Modi's party may (but do not have to, this is just speculation) take away some of the votes from INC candidates, which may bring victory to several communist candidates.

The LDF has fielded extremely strong and recognizable candidates in Kerala this time. CPI(M) fielded 15 candidates, CPI 4 and Kerala Congress (M) 1. Thomas Chazhikadan, the current MP from the regional party KC(M) was fielded again from his Kottayam constituency.

The Communist Party of India is fielding a decidedly strong candidate: Annie Raja in Wayanad, the seat of INC leader Rahul Gandhi. It will be an interesting duel because A. Raje is the wife of D. Raje - general secretary of the CPI. This is interesting because it shows the hypocrisy of the Congress - the party is looking for a "safe seat" for its candidates (5 years ago, the UDF won 18 out of 20 seats in Kerala) instead of fighting in states where the BJP is strong. The question arises (as asked by CPI leader D. Raja) "so who is the Congress actually fighting? The BJP or the Left"... with which they have formal coalition…

In Mavelikara, a seat traditionally won by INC (CPI won there only in 2004), C. A. Arun Kumar fielded. In Kerala's capital Thiruvananthapuram, the CPI is fielding the popular Pannyan Raveendran, who won the Lok Sabha seat there in 2005 (by-polls after MP's death), against the charismatic INC member Shashi Tharoor and the BJP's Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar (who hails from Gujarat, so fielding him from Kerala is ridiculous).

However, the CPI had the best chance of winning in Thrissur, where the party fielded V. S. Sunil Kumar, who was the agriculture minister in the Kerala government. The biggest chances are that the INC made a mess by removing the current MP from the electoral rolls by sending K. Muraleedharan to Thrissur (which shows that the Congress has no faith in its candidates). Another issue is that the BJP has fielded Suresh Gopi - a popular singer, and actor. So, there is hope that Gopi will snatch some votes from the Congress.

When it comes to CPI(M), they have deployed some really powerful guns in their arsenal. A. M. Ariff, the only CPI(M) MP from Kerala will again contest from his Alappuzha constituency against INC general secretary K.C. Venugopal, who was the MP from this constituency from 2009 to 2019. Working to Ariff's detriment is the fact that this constituency has a tradition of giving one term to the LDF and two consecutive terms to the UDF, although perhaps Ariff will break this trend.

In Pathanamthitta, an INC-dominated constituency, incumbent MP Anto Antony will face the popular former Kerala finance minister Thomas Isaac from CPI(M). Like Sunil Kumar, Isaac can count on the INC fighting against the BJP which may help him win the seat. The BJP fielded Anil Antony - son of former Chief Minister of Kerala and Union Defense Minister, as well as an important INC politician. This means that two politicians from the Congress background and the CPI(M) candidate will be in the race.

Vatakara, another constituency traditionally dominated by Congress, CPI(M) fielded K. K. Shailaja, famous not only in Kerala and India but also around the world, who was the health minister of Kerala, phenomenally managing the pandemic in the state, for which she gained huge recognition.

In Kozhikode (the last time the communists won was in 1980) party fielded Elamaram Kareem - the leader of the CPI(M) in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of the Indian Parliament). Besides, the CPI(M) has also fielded the current Minister for Welfare of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Backward Classes - K. Radhakrishnan and party politburo member A. Vijayaraghavan.

Apart from the states mentioned above (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, West Bengal, and Tripura), communist parties are unlikely to win a single seat. However, it seems that the candidates fielded by communist parties have a better chance than in 2019 (when many voters sympathizing with the left voted for INC, believing that Rahul Gandhi could defeat Modi and become the next prime minister... now no one has any illusions that INC is not a viable alternative). BJP candidates may also work in favor of communists in Kerala. Moreover, the strong names of the candidates are another factor that makes us believe in the success of at least more than those 5 members of the communist parties present in the Lok Sabha for the 2019-2024 term (3 from the CPI(M) and 2 from the CPI).

Also looking at the practice of the Election Commission of India, an improvement in the result (i.e. CPI(M) winning at least 4 seats) will be sufficient to maintain the status of a national party because the EC does not withdraw this status immediately after failing to meet the requirements.

Realistically speaking, there is no point in counting on the CPI(M) winning 11 seats - it would be an achievement on a great scale (the last time the party won 16 seats in the 2009 elections); Another condition for recognition as a national party becomes more realistic - winning seats in 4 states (Kerala, TN, Bihar and WB). Nevertheless, we must face the truth and say honestly - any electoral result better than the terrible 2019 will be a success and will show that the left is not dead in India and still counts. For the CPI(ML)L, winning at least one seat will be a historic success - the party has never had representation in the Lok Sabha.